COMMENT: TWITTER REVOLUTIONARIES CAN'T SAVE BELARUS

While the world sits barnacled to the Al Jazeera live stream, praying for meaningful change in Eygpt and looking on approvingly as other regimes in the Middle East relax their rule to avert the oncoming storm of revolutionary fervour, it must appear somewhat bittersweet for the people of Belarus. Trapped in a decaying Soviet twilight, Belarus' own popular uprising in December 2010 against blatant electoral fraud was comparatively under-reported and brutally suppressed without the carnival atmosphere that's characterised the global conga-line to democracy of the last few weeks.

In power since 1994, President Lukashenko is a bantamweight by Hosni Mubarak's spectacular vote-rigging standards, but like Mubarak he rules over a one-party state within spitting distance of 'civilised' Europe. Where they differ though, is that Mubarak's Egypt is an authoritarian failed democracy wearing the sober black suit of democratic capitalism. An obedient US client state, and a contributor to the War on Terror, Egypt is beaten only by  Israel when it comes to accepting American arms and support, while Lukashenko's realm is a totalitarian relic, barely tolerated by even Moscow and outright condemned by the US as  Europe's last dictatorship. Lukashenko's foreign policy may appear raucously outgoing by the standards of Kim Jong Il or Enver Hoxha, but compared to Mubarak his regime is an isolated ideological fortress with every aspect of society monitored and controlled by the successor entities of the brutal Soviet apparatus.

Lukashenko looks sideways to the east and west, and profits from his relationship with his neighbours in the EU and Russia, but he isn't beholden to them. Mubarak on the other hand, is on his knees, tickling the balls of North America and Europe for loose change, with a relationship so sophisticated and interwoven that he not only profits from it, but relies on it for his nation to function. With this greater prosperity and interaction with the world comes a greater proliferation of new media, largely the driving force of the Egyptian and Tunisian revolts, and a high placing on the international agenda of things people give a shit about, allowing doughy, white armchair revolutionaries from San Francisco to San Marino to pass judgement, register support and outrage, and galvanise their own media and governments into contributing to the story.

While both are the leaders in internet activity for their regions, with use in Belarus pipping that in neighbouring Russia (46.2% of the population in June 2010, compared to Mother Russia's 42.8%) and the uptake in Egypt being thrillingly brisk, press freedom index Reporters Without Borders rates them differently. The situation in Belarus is 'very serious' where as Egypt is merely 'difficult'. While Egypt has five major Internet Service Providers (at least two which are run or part run by companies outside of Egypt) and over 200 smaller ones, Belarus has 30, all of which use the bandwidth of the the state owned Beltelekom. When Mubarak's regime shut down the internet on January 25/26 in an attempt to stifle reporting and disrupt the organisation of protest, it was a cumbersome, messy process which left them with many dial-up services still working and only an estimated 88% of the whole network shut off, while in Belarus, with a flick of the switch, a black hole swallowed up the country on December 20, blocking access to opposition websites, LiveJournal, Twitter, Facebook, Gmail, and YouTube for the entirety of the population.

In Egypt, surveillance of internet use by the government is a matter of request – it's largely reactive, but in Belarus, very much pro-active. As of February 1, Lukashenko passed into law a bill giving an 'Analysis Centre' executive powers over the internet, requiring the ISPs to register all computers in Belarus which use the internet, internet cafés to identify their patrons, track individual use in the country, assign domain names and close websites by decree.

It's the global press, in particular Al Jazeera, that really make the difference in Egypt though, rutting frantically like dogs in the street with widespread internet access to create an endless feedback loop of coverage and opinion. In a world where the internet has finally given the people not only the power to challenge the line of their governments but to actually have it be heard, Egyptians and journalists both have contributed to the constant coverage, building a terrifying, nigh-on-unstoppable momentum of public opinion, with other Arab states stepping in with protests or legislative capitulations of their own to add fresh wind to the ongoing global narrative.

Regardless of the end result of change, Egypt at least had the freedom to call for it and the world had the freedom to call back. Belarus, meanwhile was enshrouded in a media blackout lit only by searchlights and muzzle flashes, cynically deprived of the press roadtrip that characterised Egypt thanks to the proximity of Christmas, the lack of holidaymakers in peril, the absence of a Slavic answer to Al Jazeera prepared to see the wrong end of a baton to get the job done, no an overarching metaplot about freedom in the region, and more importantly, fewer digital hotlines between people on the street and their internet placards.

Syria, also outside of the West's sphere of sympathy and closer to the Belarusian model of totalitarian control with the world's highest concentration of secret policemen, the vicious Mukhabarat, and informers suffered a similar fate. Its Facebook driven 'Day of Rage' on February 4 was pre-empted by days visible police presence and the beating of protesters showing solidarity with Egypt deterred any mass outpouring of discontent.

The fires in Belarus died for want of the coverage to stoke them, the people left the streets defeated, journalists were beaten and critics imprisoned. The new media revolution of retweeted slogans and street fights over broadband access isn't going to change the destiny of the poor, embattled Belarusian people anymore than it helped Syria. They're going to have to do it the old fashioned way, and drag a dictator kicking and screaming from his motorcade to die swinging from a lamp post.